Community Rules

1. What is Precog?

Precog is a forecasting game and reputation network. You make probabilistic forecasts on real-world questions, build a public track record, compete in monthly Episodes and weekly competitions, and earn reputation based on how well you forecast over time.

Precog is not a prediction market, sportsbook, or gambling product. You never deposit money. You never trade against other users. There are no user-funded prize pools. There is no wagering of any kind.

Prizes are awarded by Precog based on demonstrated forecasting skill and participation. All players can earn from their very first resolved question — there are no gates on basic participation.

2. How Forecasting Works

Every question on Precog asks you to express your beliefs as probabilities. There are four types:

Yes / No

Will this event happen? Set a probability between 1% and 99%. If you think it’s very likely, set it high (e.g., 85%). If you think it’s unlikely, set it low (e.g., 15%). Avoid 50% unless you genuinely have no idea — your score rewards conviction that turns out to be correct.

Multiple Choice

Which option is most likely? Distribute exactly 100 probability points across all available options. Put more points on options you think are more likely. The total must sum to exactly 100.

Numeric

What will the number be? Provide your best estimate (point estimate) along with a confidence range that captures how uncertain you are. A wider range means more uncertainty; a narrower range means more conviction.

Over / Under

Will the outcome be over or under a specified line? Set a probability (1–99%) that the outcome will be over the line. The remaining probability is automatically assigned to under.

Revisions and Lock

You can update your forecast as many times as you want while a question is open. Once the question locks(the lock time is displayed on every question), all forecasts are frozen and can no longer be changed. Only your final forecast at lock time counts for scoring.

Daily Drops

New questions arrive through Daily Drops — scheduled batches of new questions with countdown timers visible in the app. This creates a regular cadence of fresh forecasting opportunities.

3. Scoring

Precog uses proper scoring rules — mathematical formulas designed so that your best strategy is always to report your true beliefs honestly. You cannot gain an advantage by being strategically dishonest.

Here’s the intuition:

• If you say there’s an 80% chance of something and it happens, you get a good score.
• If you say there’s an 80% chance and it doesn’t happen, you get a poor score — but not as poor as if you had said 95%.
• The scoring rewards calibration: being right about how confident you are, not just being right about the outcome.
• Different question types use the most appropriate scoring method for their format.

Scoring is deterministic — given the same forecast and outcome, the score will always be the same. There is no randomness or subjective judgment in scoring.

4. Precog Index (PX)

Your Precog Index (PX) is your all-time reputation score on Precog. It represents your cumulative forecasting skill across all questions you’ve been scored on.

Key properties of PX:

• Every resolved question contributes — your PX grows (or adjusts) with each question that resolves.
• Statistical smoothing — PX uses a technique called Bayesian shrinkage, which means that your first few questions won’t lock you into an extreme score. As you answer more questions, your PX becomes more stable and reflective of your true ability.
• Domain-specific tracking — in addition to your overall PX, the system tracks your performance in specific topic domains (politics, science, sports, etc.), so your strengths are visible.
• Not manually assigned — PX and tier placement are computed entirely from your forecasting record. No human manually adjusts your tier.

5. Tier Ladder

Your PX maps to a 10-tier reputation ladder. Higher tiers unlock richer features and reward eligibility, but all players can participate, score, and accumulate PX from the start.

Falling below a tier threshold does not revoke rewards you have already earned. Tier placement adjusts as your PX changes over time.

6. Competition Structure

Episodes (Monthly)

Episodes are the primary competition unit. Each Episode spans one calendar month (UTC boundaries). Episode questions are tied to the active month and form the core of the competition. Your performance across Episode questions determines your standing on the Episode leaderboard and your eligibility for Episode prizes.

This Week (Weekly)

Weekly competitions provide a fast-feedback habit loop. They run on rolling weekly windows and offer smaller prizes, badges, and recognition. Weekly competitions are a great way for newer players to compete and earn rewards while building PX.

New Here (First 30 Days)

If you joined within the last 30 days, you’re automatically entered into the New Here leaderboard. This gives newcomers a fair playing field against other recent joiners, rather than competing immediately against established forecasters.

All Time

The All Time leaderboard reflects cumulative PX standings — your long-run reputation across all questions and all Episodes.

7. Episode Qualification

To finish on the Episode leaderboard and be eligible for Episode prizes, you must meet both of these requirements during the Episode:

1. Answer at least 85% of eligible Core questions — you must actively participate throughout the Episode, not just cherry-pick easy questions.
2. Have at least 20 resolved question-weight in the Episode result set — this ensures there are enough scored questions to produce a meaningful ranking.

Your qualification status is visible throughout the Episode:

• Eligible: You are on pace for the Episode leaderboard and prize race.
• At Risk: You are close to falling below the participation threshold. Answer more questions to stay eligible.
• Open Play: You are actively playing and building PX, but you are no longer in the current Episode’s prize race (typically because you missed too many Core questions).

8. Rewards

All players earn from their first resolved question. No tier gates basic participation, scoring, or PX accumulation. Higher tiers unlock eligibility for progressively richer reward pools.

Weekly Rewards

Small fixed prizes, sponsor rewards, badges, and recognition for top weekly performers.

Episode Rewards (Monthly)

Mid-sized cash prizes or sponsor equivalents, Episode winner badges, and featured profile treatment. Episode prize pools are unlocked based on the number of qualified finishers, not the total number of users:

Season Rewards (Annual)

Larger annual prizes may be introduced as the platform matures and builds sufficient user volume.

Important

• NO PURCHASE NECESSARY to participate or win.
• All prizes are void where prohibited by law.
• Winners are responsible for all applicable taxes.
• Precog determines prize amounts and structures at its sole discretion. Prize amounts may vary by Episode.

[LEGAL COUNSEL REVIEW: If any jurisdiction requires official contest rules filings, abbreviated official rules should be linked from this section. Review whether a separate “Official Rules” document is needed per Episode.]

9. Fair Play

Precog’s competitions depend on honest, independent forecasting. The following behaviors are prohibited:

• Multi-accounting: One account per person. Creating additional accounts to gain an unfair advantage or manipulate standings is prohibited.
• Bots and automation: All forecasts must be submitted by the human account holder. Automated tools, scripts, or AI agents submitting forecasts on your behalf are prohibited.
• Collusion: Coordinating with other users to manipulate forecasts, scores, or leaderboard standings is prohibited.
• Community Read manipulation: Submitting deliberately misleading forecasts to skew the Community Read is prohibited.

Violations may result in:

• Temporary or permanent freezing of prize eligibility;
• Account suspension or termination;
• Forfeiture of prizes.

Precog does not disclose the specific methods used to detect violations. If you believe an enforcement action was taken in error, contact support@precog.gg to appeal.

10. Question Lifecycle

Every question on Precog moves through the following stages:

1. Scheduled: The question has been created and is queued for a future Daily Drop.
2. Open: The question is live and accepting forecasts. You can submit and revise your forecast as many times as you want.
3. Locked: The lock time has passed. All forecasts are frozen. No more changes are possible.
4. Resolved: The real-world outcome has been determined and all forecasts have been scored.
5. Voided: The question has been canceled — typically because the resolution criteria could not be fairly applied, or because the answer became prematurely knowable. Voided questions do not affect scores or standings.

In rare cases, a question may be emergency locked — locked before its scheduled lock time if information surfaces that makes the outcome knowable.

11. Community Read

The Community Read is the unweighted average of all current forecasts on a question. It represents “what the crowd thinks” in aggregate.

The Community Read becomes visible once 7 or more forecasters have submitted on a question. Below that threshold, it is hidden to protect the privacy of early forecasters and prevent anchoring.

The Community Read updates in real-time as new forecasts come in or existing forecasts are revised. After a question locks, the Community Read is frozen at its final value.

12. Disputes

If you believe a question was resolved incorrectly, you can dispute the resolution:

1. Email support@precog.gg with the question ID (visible on the question detail screen) and a clear explanation of why you believe the resolution is incorrect.
2. The Precog admin team will review the dispute and the question’s resolution criteria.
3. Possible outcomes:
   • Resolution corrected: If the resolution was genuinely incorrect, it will be updated and all affected scores recalculated.
   • Question voided: If the resolution criteria were ambiguous or cannot be fairly applied, the question may be voided entirely.
   • Resolution upheld: If the resolution was correct, you will receive an explanation of why.

Disputes are reviewed by the admin team within 7 business days. Resolution corrections, if any, are applied retroactively to all affected scores and standings.